¿En qué medida son eficientes las estrategias de inmunidad de rebaño para la contención de la covid-19?

(How efficient are herd immunity approaches to covid-19 containment?)

Primeras 5 respuestas:

1. Induction of herd immunity by mass vaccination has been a very successful strategy for preventing the spread of many infectious diseases,


2. This has been communicated in a transparent manner.


3. Herd immunity is the most critical and essential prophylactic intervention that delivers protection against infectious diseases at both the individual and community level


4. herd immunity would efficiently evaluate potential COVID-19 patients.


5. At present, the total number of confirmed cases in the United Kingdom got stabilized and the outbreak has shown a controllable trend.

Induction of herd immunity by mass vaccination has been a very successful strategy for preventing the spread of many infectious diseases,

... expansion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Induction of herd immunity by mass vaccination has been a very successful strategy for preventing the spread of many infectious diseases, hence protecting the most vulnerable population groups unable to develop immunity, for example individuals with ...

Ref: The Long Road Toward COVID-19 Herd Immunity: Vaccine Platform Technologies and Mass Immunization Strategies [Front Immunol, 2020]

This has been communicated in a transparent manner.

... is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a ...

Ref: Sweden backcasting, now?-Strategic planning for Covid-19 mitigation in a liberal democracy [Sustainability, 2020]

Herd immunity is the most critical and essential prophylactic intervention that delivers protection against infectious diseases at both the individual and community level

... Herd immunity is the most critical and essential prophylactic intervention that delivers protection against infectious diseases at both the individual and community level This process of natural vaccination is immensely pertinent to the current context of a pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection around the globe The conventional idea ...

Ref: Impact of Microbiota: A Paradigm for Evolving Herd Immunity against Viral Diseases [Viruses, 2020]

herd immunity would efficiently evaluate potential COVID-19 patients.

... rapid IgM/IgG testing to assess benefit from quarantine/further testing and provide information on population exposure/ herd immunity would efficiently evaluate potential COVID-19 patients. Triaging patients within minutes with a fingerstick rather than hours/days after an invasive swab is ...

Ref: Multi-Tiered Screening and Diagnosis Strategy for COVID-19: A Model for Sustainable Testing Capacity in Response to Pandemic. [Annals of medicine, 2020-05-06]

At present, the total number of confirmed cases in the United Kingdom got stabilized and the outbreak has shown a controllable trend.

... in fact United Kingdom did not adopt "herd immunity" as their strategy against the virus. At present, the total number of confirmed cases in the United Kingdom got stabilized and the outbreak has shown a controllable trend. As of August 30st, 2020, the total number of COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom ...

Ref: How to Understand “Herd Immunity” in COVID-19 Pandemic [Front Cell Dev Biol, 2020-09-24]

Comparison of these parameters was used as an indicator of effectiveness / ineffectiveness of lockdown measures.

... (Sweden, Iceland) not. As output parameters, we studied herd immunity level and time of formation. Comparison of these parameters was used as an indicator of effectiveness / ineffectiveness of lockdown measures. In the absence of a medical vaccine, herd immunity may be regarded as a factor ...

Ref: Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency [Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2020]

strategies based on containment are inherently fragile as temporary failure to maintain the effective reproduction number R below 1 leads to the flare-up of the disease.

... suggest that strategies aiming at achieving herd immunity, even at the cost of substantial mortality, could be evaluated. Once herd immunity has been achieved, high-risk individuals are protected. By contrast, strategies based on containment are inherently fragile as temporary failure to maintain the effective reproduction number R below 1 leads to the flare-up of the disease. ...

Ref: Can herd immunity be achieved without breaking ICUs? [Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2020-05-27]

The author suggests an innovative strategy to balance controlling the epidemic and preventing impediment to economic and social development.

... certain proportion of people has been infected, and the epidemic ends without intervention. The author assesses containment strategies versus this herd immunity strategy in real-world application to the COVID-19 epidemic. The author suggests an innovative strategy to balance controlling the epidemic and preventing impediment to economic and social development. ...

Ref: [Analysis of application of herd immunity as a control strategy for COVID-19]. [Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi, 2020-05-13]

The epidemiological consequence of the herd immunity threshold is that the disease can be effectively controlled or eliminated if the minimum herd immunity threshold is achieved in the community.

... individuals needed to be vaccinated in order to achieve vaccine-induced community herd immunity is derived. The epidemiological consequence of the herd immunity threshold is that the disease can be effectively controlled or eliminated if the minimum herd immunity threshold is achieved in the community. Simulations of the model, using baseline parameter values obtained from fitting the model with COVID-19 ...

Ref: Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.? [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020]

We believe this is a promising strategy for dealing with COVID-19 in many countries such as India,

... a simple branching-process model for COVID-19 and show that digital immunity is possible regardless of the proportion of non-symptomatic transmission. We believe this is a promising strategy for dealing with COVID-19 in many countries such as India, whose challenges of scale motivated us to undertake this study. ...

Ref: Digital Herd Immunity and COVID-19 [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020-04-15]

We show that these cause the reproduction number to decrease with progression,

... the heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility, as well as the correlation between the two parameters. We show that these cause the reproduction number to decrease with progression, and consequently have a drastic effect on the estimate of the necessary percentage of the ...

Ref: Heterogeneity and Superspreading Effect on Herd Immunity [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020-09-01]

Unfortunately, this strategy failed due to the high complication rates, as well as the short incubation period and lethality of COVID-19.

... "herd immunity". The rationale behind this theory is that by allowing "enough of citizens who are going to get mild illness to become immune", a national disaster may be averted. Unfortunately, this strategy failed due to the high complication rates, as well as the short incubation period and lethality of COVID-19. ...

Ref: COVID-19: The Concept of Herd Immunity – Is It A Strategy for South Africa? [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020-04-22]

This approach received little support from the public.

... to establish herd immunity, which was presented to the public by the Prime Minister (4). This approach received little support from the public. Subsequently, herd immunity was reframed into a consequence rather than the aim of the policy. ...

Ref: The Dutch COVID-19 approach: Regional differences in a small country.: The Dutch COVID-19 approach. [Health Policy Technol, 2020-08-27]

Discovering an effective vaccine will not be without certain challenges to overcome,

... Discovering an effective vaccine will not be without certain challenges to overcome, such as its secondary effects, price and ease of accessibility, limited secondary effects to vulnerable people, longterm immune response, and the willingness of the population to be vaccinated voluntarily [77] ...

Ref: Dynamics of Population Immunity Due to the Herd Effect in the COVID-19 Pandemic [Vaccines (Basel), 2020-05-19]

Herd immunity is the most critical and essential prophylactic intervention that delivers protection against infectious diseases at both the individual and community level.

... Herd immunity is the most critical and essential prophylactic intervention that delivers protection against infectious diseases at both the individual and community level. This process of natural vaccination is immensely pertinent to the current context of a pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection around the globe. The conventional idea ...

Ref: Impact of Microbiota: A Paradigm for Evolving Herd Immunity against Viral Diseases. [Viruses, 2020-10-10]

A population weighted average for the United States is 47.5% compared to a classically estimated level of 77.1%. Conclusions.

... the epidemic completed. Results. Necessary levels of herd immunity vary greatly from county to county. A population weighted average for the United States is 47.5% compared to a classically estimated level of 77.1%. Conclusions. Common thinking argues that the nation needs to achieve at least 60% herd immunity to ...

Ref: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020: Implications for the COVID-19 Response [Viruses, 2020-10-06]

The consequences of failure to either adequately mitigate or suppress COVID-19 are potentially catastrophic.

... The consequences of failure to either adequately mitigate or suppress COVID-19 are potentially catastrophic. Due to the many uncertainties surrounding SARS-CoV-2 transmission, authorities are presented with the worst kind of natural experiment. Mathematical modelling is able to assist evaluating a) Intervention strategies b) Intervention ...

Ref: COVID-19 herd immunity strategies: walking an elusive and dangerous tightrope [medRxiv, 2020-05-05]

The herd immunity is estimated between 36 to 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6 respectively.

... the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI=2.34, 2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI=1.3 , 1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36 to 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6 respectively. ...

Ref: Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in India [medRxiv, 2020-06-29]

the disease-induced herd immunity level can be around 43%,

... R(0) = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be around 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous ...

Ref: A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 [Science, 2020-06-23]

Triaging patients within minutes with a fingerstick rather than hours/days after an invasive swab is critical to pandemic response

... quarantine/further testing and provide information on population exposure/herd immunity would efficiently evaluate potential COVID-19 patients. Triaging patients within minutes with a fingerstick rather than hours/days after an invasive swab is critical to pandemic response as reliance on the existing strategy is limited by assay accuracy, time to results, and ...

Ref: Multi-tiered screening and diagnosis strategy for COVID-19: a model for sustainable testing capacity in response to pandemic [Ann Med, 2020]

the cost of reaching herd immunity through natural infection would be very high,

... 10 . For COVID-19, which has an estimated infection fatality ratio of 0.3-1.3% 1,5 , the cost of reaching herd immunity through natural infection would be very high, especially in the absence of improved patient management and without optimal shielding of individuals at ...

Ref: COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we? [Nat Rev Immunol, 2020-09-09]

The herd immunity is estimated between 36% and 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6, respectively.

... reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI = 2.34-2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI = 1.3-1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36% and 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6, respectively. ...

Ref: Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Infections in India. [Asia-Pacific journal of public health, 2020-08-30]

Herd immunity offers protection to a population when adequate numbers of people are immune to an infectious disease to prevent its spread Those who recover from COVID-19

... Herd immunity offers protection to a population when adequate numbers of people are immune to an infectious disease to prevent its spread Those who recover from COVID-19 and those who receive a vaccine (as and when there is one) are expected to develop some immunity, at least for some period of time With Severe acute Respiratory Syndrome- ...

Ref: Can herd immunity be relied on as a strategy to combat COVID-19? (Special Issue: COVID-19: supporting scientific surge.) [International Journal of Health and Allied Sciences, 2020]

There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease.

... have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease. This relationship can be used to determine how many people will require hospitalisation (and possibly ...

Ref: Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic [International Journal of Health and Allied Sciences, 2020-03-26]

A population weighted average for the United States is 47.5% compared to a classically estimated level of 77.1%.

... the epidemic completed. Results. Necessary levels of herd immunity vary greatly from county to county. A population weighted average for the United States is 47.5% compared to a classically estimated level of 77.1%. Conclusions. Common thinking argues that the nation needs to achieve at least 60% herd immunity ...

Ref: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020: Implications for the COVID-19 Response [International Journal of Health and Allied Sciences, 2020-10-06]

This exponential wave of patients requires prompt health care delivery system planning and response.

... will persist until a vaccine strategy is designed and implemented to effect herd immunity. The COVID-19 second wave are the patients that have had their primary and specialty care delayed. This exponential wave of patients requires prompt health care delivery system planning and response. ...

Ref: cord_uid jt3gqwzo Delayed Primary and Specialty Care: The Corona... jt3gqwzo Delayed Primary and Specialty Care: The Corona... jt3gqwzo Delayed Primary and Specialty Care: The Corona... Name: title, dtype: object [International Journal of Health and Allied Sciences, cord_uid jt3gqwzo 2020 jt3gqwzo 2020 jt3gqwzo 2020 Name: publish_time, dtype: object]

This would be a potent demonstration of intergenerational solidarity towards the most vulnerable people in our community.

... confined as long as this herd immunity has not been attained by the younger generations. This would be a potent demonstration of intergenerational solidarity towards the most vulnerable people in our community. The welfare gain of this age-specific deconfinement strategy is huge, as it can reduce the ...

Ref: If the Objective is Herd Immunity, on Whom Should it be Built? [Environ Resour Econ (Dordr), 2020]

The herd immunity calculated from economic-epidemiological model suggests that at least 62% of the susceptible population be vaccinated when COVID-19 vaccine becomes available.

... adopted that allows a stochastic diffusion. The result shows that the basic reproduction number of South Korea is approximately 2 which is substantially lower than those of the other regions. The herd immunity calculated from economic-epidemiological model suggests that at least 62% of the susceptible population be vaccinated when COVID-19 vaccine becomes available. ...

Ref: A Study on Herd Immunity of COVID-19 in South Korea: Using a Stochastic Economic-Epidemiological Model [Environ Resour Econ (Dordr), 2020]

This is a 'do-nothing' strategy whereby the virus is allowed to move through communities naturally until certain proportion of people has been infected,

... measures for a while, instead opting to allow herd immunity strategy to develop over time. This is a "do-nothing" strategy whereby the virus is allowed to move through communities naturally until certain proportion of people has been infected, and the epidemic ends without intervention. The author assesses containment strategies versus this herd immunity ...

Ref: [Analysis of application of herd immunity as a control strategy for COVID-19]. [Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi, 2020-05-13]

the percentage of the immune population, the length and effectiveness of the immune response and the stability of the viral epitopes.

... Effective herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will be determined on many factors: the percentage of the immune population, the length and effectiveness of the immune response and the stability of the viral epitopes. The required percentage of immune individuals has been estimated to be 50-66% of the population which, given the current ...

Ref: Long-term and herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: implications from current and past knowledge [Pathog. Dis, 2020]

This was easy to communicate to the Swedish people, who appreciated the voluntary restrictions approach and trusted their decision makers.

... citizenry. Sweden assumed the herd immunity strategy and backed it up with health utilitarian arguments. This was easy to communicate to the Swedish people, who appreciated the voluntary restrictions approach and trusted their decision makers. Finland chose the contain and mitigate strategy and was towards the end of the observation ...

Ref: The COVID-19 Pandemic: Healthcare Crisis Leadership as Ethics Communication [Camb Q Healthc Ethics, 2020]

For this to occur, about 60% to 70% of the general population would need to become infected.

... that the population could benefit from this pandemic and become immune naturally, gaining "herd immunity." For this to occur, about 60% to 70% of the general population would need to become infected. Based on the current estimates of the proportion of severe and critical cases (about 15%) ...

Ref: Feasibility of coronavirus disease 2019 eradication [Chin Med J (Engl), 2020-06-20]

While the time to herd immunity could be acceptable in the best case scenario, it 3 .

... 50%, we obtain a number of COVID fatalities at ICUs ranging between 497,000 and 1,273,000. While the time to herd immunity could be acceptable in the best case scenario, it 3 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has ...

Ref: Can herd immunity be achieved without breaking ICUs? [Chin Med J (Engl), 2020-05-27]

That fraction is typically calculated as 1-1/R0 [6] .

... a large enough fraction of the population is immune that transmission does not spread widely. That fraction is typically calculated as 1-1/R0 [6] . R0, the basic reproductive number, refers to the average number of people an infected individual ...

Ref: Implications of test characteristics and population seroprevalence on ‘immune passport’ strategies [Clin Infect Dis, 2020-07-20]

The probability to observe linear growth in these is practically zero.

... initially did not impose measures and one that responded with a severe lockdown early on. Our findings question the applicability of standard compartmental models to describe the COVID-19 containment phase. The probability to observe linear growth in these is practically zero. ...

Ref: A network-based explanation of why most COVID-19 infection curves are linear [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2020]

The initial development of COVID-19 was somewhat slow with the infection spots that can be effectively isolated.

... death and 429 reinfection cases were reported while the rest of the infected were cured. The initial development of COVID-19 was somewhat slow with the infection spots that can be effectively isolated. It seemed that the disease was under control until the clustered infection cases soon came ...

Ref: A Study on Herd Immunity of COVID-19 in South Korea: Using a Stochastic Economic-Epidemiological Model [Environ Resour Econ (Dordr), 2020-07-13]

would efficiently evaluate potential COVID-19 patients.

... IgM/IgG testing to assess benefit from quarantine/further testing and provide information on population exposure/herd immunity would efficiently evaluate potential COVID-19 patients. Triaging patients within minutes with a fingerstick rather than hours/days after an invasive swab is ...

Ref: Multi-tiered screening and diagnosis strategy for COVID-19: a model for sustainable testing capacity in response to pandemic [Ann Med, 2020]

We propose four immunological scenarios for the impact of cross-reactive CD4+ memory T cells on COVID-19 severity and viral transmission.

... immune memory to SARS-CoV-2, which largely originates from previous exposure to circulating common cold coronaviruses. We propose four immunological scenarios for the impact of cross-reactive CD4+ memory T cells on COVID-19 severity and viral transmission. For each scenario, we discuss its implications for the dynamics of herd immunity and on ...

Ref: Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 [Nat. rev. immunol, 2020]

containment efforts requires models which accommodate both biological and 23 population-level dynamics.

... containment efforts requires models which accommodate both biological and 23 population-level dynamics. In particular, models that can represent properly 24 the immunological aspects of COVID-19 progression as well as the impact of 25 containment mechanisms, such as quarantine and social distancing. 26 ...

Ref: Modeling the Post-Containment Elimination of Transmission of COVID-19 [Nat. rev. immunol, 2020-06-17]

If this is implemented quickly and effectively, the Swedish state epidemiologist's glum prediction could become accurate.

... is that by deliberately letting the pandemic spread governments seem to assume the herd immunity strategy. If this is implemented quickly and effectively, the Swedish state epidemiologist"s glum prediction could become accurate. Countries choosing this route would end up having a death toll similar to Sweden"s. ...

Ref: The COVID-19 Pandemic: Healthcare Crisis Leadership as Ethics Communication [Cambridge quarterly of healthcare ethics : CQ : the international journal of healthcare ethics committees, 2020-05-22]

Such combination of strategies significantly reduces the level of the vaccine-induced herd immunity threshold needed to eliminate the pandemic in the US.

... vaccination program is combined with other interventions, such as face mask usage and/or social distancing. Such combination of strategies significantly reduces the level of the vaccine-induced herd immunity threshold needed to eliminate the pandemic in the US. For instance, the herd immunity threshold decreases to 72% if half of the US population ...

Ref: Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.? [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020]

Necessary levels of herd immunity vary greatly from county to county.

... in the network by running the model forward in time until the epidemic completed. Results. Necessary levels of herd immunity vary greatly from county to county. A population weighted average for the United States is 47.5% compared to a classically estimated ...

Ref: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020: Implications for the COVID-19 Response [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020-10-06]

Herd immunity provokes hostility and controversy as it is usually interpreted as allowing the pandemic to unfold without interventions.

... The technical phrase is herd immunity, with connotations of animals, rather than humans. Herd immunity provokes hostility and controversy as it is usually interpreted as allowing the pandemic to unfold without interventions. The concept needs revisiting. If safe and effective vaccines and life-saving preventative and therapeutic medications are not ...

Ref: COVID-19 zugzwang: potential public health moves towards population (herd) immunity [Infect. Dis. Modelling, 2020-07-15]

This approach received little support from the public. Subsequently, herd immunity was reframed into a consequence rather than the aim of the policy.

... . The government aimed to allow a controlled spread of the virus over several months to establish herd immunity, which was presented to the public by the Prime Minister (4). This approach received little support from the public. Subsequently, herd immunity was reframed into a consequence rather than the aim of the policy. ...

Ref: The Dutch COVID-19 approach: Regional differences in a small country.: The Dutch COVID-19 approach. [Health Policy Technol, 2020-08-27]

the disease-induced herd immunity level can be ~43%,

... 0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be ~43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous ...

Ref: A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 [Science, 2020]

This paper experimentally investigates people's vaccination choices in the context of a nonlinear public good game.

... Would the affected communities voluntarily obtain herd immunity if a cure for COVID-19 was available? This paper experimentally investigates people"s vaccination choices in the context of a nonlinear public good game. A "vaccination game" is defined in which costly commitments (vaccination) are required of a fraction ...

Ref: Herd immunity and a vaccination game: An experimental study [PLoS One, 2020]

the containment measures are at the moment the only realistic instrument we have to slow the spread of the pandemic.

... reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction in nasopharyngeal swabs. These data, along with those recently reported from other countries, clearly show that we are very far from herd immunity and that the containment measures are at the moment the only realistic instrument we have to slow the spread of the pandemic. ...

Ref: Results from a survey in healthy blood donors in South Eastern Italy indicate that we are far away from herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 [J. med. virol, 2020]

This study provides a useful tool to guide the development of local policies to contain the virus.

... undocumented spread of SARS-CoV-2. The biggest concern in the world is knowing when herd immunity has been achieved and scheduling a time to regain the living activities of each country. This study provides a useful tool to guide the development of local policies to contain the virus. ...

Ref: Epidemiological Tools that Predict Partial Herd Immunity to SARS Coronavirus 2 [J. med. virol, 2020-03-27]

How can one determine how much herd immunity is sufficient to mitigate subsequent substantial outbreaks of COVID-19?

... virus, and is thus wholly distinct from the snapshot of people who accessed PCR testing. How can one determine how much herd immunity is sufficient to mitigate subsequent substantial outbreaks of COVID-19? This calculation depends on several variables, 15 including the calculated basic reproduction number (R 0 ...

Ref: What policy makers need to know about COVID-19 protective immunity [Lancet, 2020-04-27]

This has resulted in excess deaths, hospitalization and life-changing injury.

... privatization by claiming to ‘follow the science’ and so adopt the ‘strategy’ of herd immunity. This has resulted in excess deaths, hospitalization and life-changing injury. The global experience of Covid-19 has emphasized existing inequalities, anger, and the challenge of ‘leadership’ ...

Ref: Covid-19: agnotology, inequality, and leadership [Hum. Resour. Dev. Int., 2020]

These tests differ between one another in several ways.

... pandemic to assess the degree of herd immunity that has been achieved in the population. These tests differ between one another in several ways. Here, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of currently available ...

Ref: Meta-analysis of diagnostic performance of serological tests for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and public health implications [Hum. Resour. Dev. Int., 2020-05-08]

at least 56% of people with protective immunity would be needed to be sufficient to avoid a second wave.

... in Algeria will be reached with herd immunity of 15.93% as of November 2020, however, at least 56% of people with protective immunity would be needed to be sufficient to avoid a second wave. The used method to carry out the evaluation has given us a good overview, but, ...

Ref: COVID-19 Epidemic in Algeria: Assessment of the implemented preventive strategy [Hum. Resour. Dev. Int., 2020-04-26]

Robust healthcare policy to efficiently monitor COVID-19 spread is warranted.

... of the second infection. We are continuing the antibody test at the community level to identify the risk group of COVID-19, which would suggest more personalized measures of disease control. Robust healthcare policy to efficiently monitor COVID-19 spread is warranted. ...

Ref: Challenges of community point-of-care antibody testing for COVID-19 herd-immunity in Japan [QJM, 2020-05-28]

for these to be successful requires the ability to reduce transmission to a level where the effective reproduction number Rc is close to or below 1.

... immunity, are a tempting approach for the control of Covid-19. However, model results show that for these to be successful requires the ability to reduce transmission to a level where the effective reproduction number Rc is close to or below 1. It remains unknown whether this will be achievable in practice in New Zealand. There is ...

Ref: Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand [QJM, 2020-03-30]

The coming 2 years are a golden time for elimination through vaccination, which requires tremendous national and international collaboration.

... establishment of global herd immunity through mass vaccination using an appropriate vaccine could eliminate SARS-CoV-2. The coming 2 years are a golden time for elimination through vaccination, which requires tremendous national and international collaboration. This review also prioritizes the efficacy of vaccines for COVID-19 and elucidates the importance of ...

Ref: Potential for elimination of SAR-CoV-2 through vaccination as inspired by elimination of multiple influenza viruses through natural pandemics or mass vaccination [J. med. virol, 2020]

The proportion of the population that should be exposed to the virus for herd immunity to be effective is calculated as 1-1/Ro.

... COVID-19. The epidemiological estimate is that we need 70% herd immunity to turn the epidemic down for a Ro of 2 and 80% herd immunity if the Ro was 5.7. The proportion of the population that should be exposed to the virus for herd immunity to be effective is calculated as 1-1/Ro. ...

Ref: Is Gradual and Controlled Approach to Herd Protection a Valid Strategy to Curb the COVID-19 Pandemic? [Indian Pediatr, 2020-05-06]

the model predicts the threshold herd immunity to be 69 31% and value as 3 26 Further,

... 4904 and currently holds at 0 8952 In the absence of SD and testing measures, the model predicts the threshold herd immunity to be 69 31% and value as 3 26 Further, scenario analysis has been conducted for alleviating the SD measure The results show that early ...

Ref: COVID-19 Modeling in Saudi Arabia Using the Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) Model [Cureus, 2020]

These conditions can make it possible for the region to initiate the endgame phase of epidemic management,

... and (c) high testing capacity relative to the actual number of new cases per day. These conditions can make it possible for the region to initiate the endgame phase of epidemic management, wherein the disease is slowly made to burn itself out through a combination of social ...

Ref: A Path to the End of COIVD-19 - a Mathematical Model [Cureus, nan]

Without the ability to efficiently screen patients, hospitals are overwhelmed, potentially delaying treatment for other emergencies.

... for a tiered diagnostic approach to rapidly identify clinically significant infections and reduce disease spread. Without the ability to efficiently screen patients, hospitals are overwhelmed, potentially delaying treatment for other emergencies. A multi-tiered, diagnostic strategy incorporating a rapid host immune response assay as a screening test, ...

Ref: Multi-tiered screening and diagnosis strategy for COVID-19: a model for sustainable testing capacity in response to pandemic [Ann Med, 2020]

The safest and fastest way to achieve herd immunity is obviously vaccination.

... who have not been infected yet) receive some protection against the acquisition of the disease. The safest and fastest way to achieve herd immunity is obviously vaccination. It should, however, be mentioned that Sweden employed the other mechanism for achieving herd immunity ...

Ref: Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.? [Infect Dis Model, 2020-08-06]

COVID-19 epidemiology and postmodernism may be a dangerous combination.

... with the WHO and other countries may be associated with post-materialist values and postmodernism including opposition against modern authority, rationality and science, and also an anti-traditionalist stance towards older generations. COVID-19 epidemiology and postmodernism may be a dangerous combination. ...

Ref: The COVID-19 pandemic and the Swedish strategy: Epidemiology and postmodernism [SSM Popul. Health, 2020]

The procedure is illustrated using data from twelve countries at two early times during the COVID-19 epidemic.

... method for measuring uncertainty about P(crit) based on a widely used package, EpiEstim, is derived. The procedure is illustrated using data from twelve countries at two early times during the COVID-19 epidemic. It is shown that simple plug-in measures of confidence on estimates of P(crit) are misleading, ...

Ref: On the Uncertainty about Herd Immunity Levels Required to Stop Covid-19 Epidemics [SSM Popul. Health, 2020-06-01]

Vaccination of children to induce herd immunity has proven successful in preventing the spread of many infectious diseases, where children have a significant role in transmission.

... infection (7) . In addition to vaccines, variable susceptibility and exposure largely determine herd immunity. Vaccination of children to induce herd immunity has proven successful in preventing the spread of many infectious diseases, where children have a significant role in transmission. A high level of immunity in one age group, who play a role in transmission, ...

Ref: Herd Immunity and Vaccination of children for COVID19 [Int J Infect Dis, 2020-06-23]

There will be an untold and unpredictable number of shortterm rises in patients with an acute COVID-19 infection.

... has been created, properly tested without political exigency, and administered to create sufficient population immunity. There will be an untold and unpredictable number of shortterm rises in patients with an acute COVID-19 infection. These will be mere ripples and will not approximate the Spanish flu of 1918-1919 or ...

Ref: Delayed Primary and Specialty Care: The Coronavirus Disease–2019 Pandemic Second Wave [Disaster medicine and public health preparedness, 2020-05-07]

Implementing such policies in real life will be significantly harder.

... Above we have implemented a variety of possible containment strategies through simply changing a few parameter values. Implementing such policies in real life will be significantly harder. A few of the most pressing logistical issues which need analysis are: ...

Ref: The Effectiveness of Targeted Quarantine for Minimising Impact of COVID-19 [Disaster medicine and public health preparedness, 2020-04-03]

The initial focus was to obtain herd immunity while preventing Intensive Care Units from getting overwhelmed.

... The Netherlands started with containment yet shifted to mitigation when a "mild" lockdown was implemented. The initial focus was to obtain herd immunity while preventing Intensive Care Units from getting overwhelmed. Methods: An in-depth analysis of available national and international COVID-19 data sources was conducted. Due ...

Ref: The Dutch COVID-19 approach: Regional differences in a small country.: The Dutch COVID-19 approach [Health Policy Technol, 2020]

However it might come at the expense of deaths among the vulnerable population.

... current state of affairs, herd immunity seems to be inevitable for COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. However it might come at the expense of deaths among the vulnerable population. In this work, we analyzed this crucial trade-off in a systematic approach and synthesized a ...

Ref: Adjusted Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic due to Herd Immunity in Bangladesh [Health Policy Technol, 2020-09-05]

These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard.

... the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e.,"herd immunity"), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible. These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard. ...

Ref: Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States [Health Policy Technol, 2020-07-01]

is not a viable option as large numbers of people are expected to become infected and many may die from COVID-19.

... In conclusion, strengthening herd immunity to control the COVID-19 epidemic is not a viable option as large numbers of people are expected to become infected and many may die from COVID-19. Preventive measures, including physical distancing, remain essential to contain the spread of infection until herd immunity can be safely acquired ...

Ref: Results from a survey in healthy blood donors in South Eastern Italy indicate that we are far away from herd immunity to SARS‐CoV‐2 [J Med Virol, 2020-08-13]

At present, the extent to which humans are able to generate sterilizing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is unclear.

... against SARS-CoV-2 hinges on the assumption that infection with the virus generates sufficient, protective immunity. At present, the extent to which humans are able to generate sterilizing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is unclear. A recent study assessing the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a small cohort of rhesus ...

Ref: Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19 [Immunity, 2020-05-19]

The implications of immunological processes on other aspects of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology are worthy of future study.

... that key potential impacts of cross-reactive T cell memory are already incorporated into epidemiological models based on data of transmission dynamics, particularly with regard to their implications for herd immunity. The implications of immunological processes on other aspects of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology are worthy of future study. ...

Ref: Cross-reactive memory T cells and herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 [Nat. rev. immunol, 2020]

the herd immunity threshold declines from over 60% (4, 5) to less than 10%.

... COVID-19 and show that as the coefficient of variation (CV) increases from 0 to 4, the herd immunity threshold declines from over 60% (4, 5) to less than 10%. Measures of individual 20 variation are urgently needed to narrow the estimated ranges of HITs ...

Ref: Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold [medRxiv, 2020-05-02]

These results will impact modeling needed for determining herd immunity generated by natural infection or vaccination.

... CONCLUSIONS: These results confirm immune responses are generated following COVID-19 who develop a mildly symptomatic illness. However, those with the asymptomatic infection do not respond or have lower antibody levels. These results will impact modeling needed for determining herd immunity generated by natural infection or vaccination. ...

Ref: Antibody responses after COVID-19 infection in patients who are mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic in Bangladesh [Int. j. infect. dis, 2020]

Disease containment efforts largely failed, and the WHO in March 2020 declared a global pandemic status for this insidious virus and viral disease.

... coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Given not only the efficient human-to-human, droplet transmission of SARS-CoV-2 but also extensive domestic and international travel in and out of Central China, COVID-19 spreads rapidly. Disease containment efforts largely failed, and the WHO in March 2020 declared a global pandemic status for this insidious virus and viral disease. ...

Ref: cord_uid sigm6tos The Response of the Anesthesia & Analgesia Com... sigm6tos The Response of the Anesthesia & Analgesia Com... Name: title, dtype: object [Int. j. infect. dis, cord_uid sigm6tos 2020-07-01 sigm6tos 2020-04-27 Name: publish_time, dtype: object]

Public policies based on these concepts are inadequate to protect the population.

... immunity" and containment ("flattening the curve") are highly misleading in the context of this virus. Public policies based on these concepts are inadequate to protect the population. Only reducing the R 0 of the virus below 1 is an effective strategy for ...

Ref: The COVID-19 pandemic: model-based evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and prognoses [Nonlinear Dyn, 2020]

Ferrets and related members of the weasel genus transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently with minimal clinical signs,

... of the pandemic will depend on interruption of transmission chains until protective herd immunity arises. Ferrets and related members of the weasel genus transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently with minimal clinical signs, resembling spread in the young-adult population. We previously reported an orally efficacious nucleoside analog inhibitor ...

Ref: Therapeutic MK-4482/EIDD-2801 Blocks SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Ferrets [Nonlinear Dyn, 2020]

herd immunity achieved through vaccination) and societal COVID-19 resilience.

... LESSONS LEARNT Principles discussed in this article will help build preparedness capacity and offer communication strategies for moving from the acute phase to the "next normal" with likely prevention (e.g. herd immunity achieved through vaccination) and societal COVID-19 resilience. ...

Ref: Enhancing global health communication during a crisis: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic. [Public health research & practice, 2020-06-30]

Containment measures in China significantly reduced COVID-19 spreading.

... Effectiveness of containment measures. Containment measures in China significantly reduced COVID-19 spreading. The first lockdown resulted in a 61% decrease of the reproduction factor R 0 and the second, stricter wave of measures eventually managed to bring it ...

Ref: Modeling the COVID-19 outbreaks and the effectiveness of the containment measures adopted across countries [Public health research & practice, 2020-04-04]

Our approach is scalable and hence tackles the urgent problem facing social media platforms of having to analyze huge volumes of online health misinformation and disinformation.

... providing herd immunity, leaving countries open to future COVID-19 resurgences. We provide a mechanistic model that interprets these results and could help in assessing the likely efficacy of intervention strategies. Our approach is scalable and hence tackles the urgent problem facing social media platforms of having to analyze huge volumes of online health misinformation and disinformation. ...

Ref: Quantifying COVID-19 Content in the Online Health Opinion War Using Machine Learning [IEEE Access, 2020]

Finally, we will evaluate the efficiency of lockdown measures.

... (SIR) modified compartmental model. Using epidemiological data as input parameters for the model, we calculate times and levels of herd immunity formation for different modes of containment (lockdown and no-lockdown). Finally, we will evaluate the efficiency of lockdown measures. ...

Ref: Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency [Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2020-09-24]

which for the time being seems inferior to other suggested building blocks.

... the contrasting approach of a stratified population release in a hope to achieve herd immunity, which for the time being seems inferior to other suggested building blocks. Knowing the tradeoff between building blocks could help optimize exit strategies to be more effective ...

Ref: Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 Exit Strategies Building Blocks [Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2020-04-28]

herd immunity may require vaccine coverage of up to 80% of the population.

... COVID-19 vaccine among children will be instrumental in limiting the spread of the disease as herd immunity may require vaccine coverage of up to 80% of the population. Prior history of pandemic vaccine coverage was as low as 40% among children in the ...

Ref: Caregiver willingness to vaccinate their children against COVID-19: cross sectional survey [Vaccine, 2020-10-10]

Large‐scale investigation is required to evaluate the herd immunity of the city, for the resuming people and for the re‐opened city.

... Combination of SARS‐CoV‐2 NAT and a specific serological test might facilitate the detection of COVID‐19 infection, or the asymptomatic SARS‐CoV‐2‐infected subjects. Large‐scale investigation is required to evaluate the herd immunity of the city, for the resuming people and for the re‐opened city. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. ...

Ref: Serological tests facilitate identification of asymptomatic SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in Wuhan, China [J Med Virol, 2020-04-20]

how hard could the time evolution toward the desired herd immunity (HI) be on the lives of people?

... of coupled chemical reactions to treat multiple parallel reaction pathways. We essentially ask the question: how hard could the time evolution toward the desired herd immunity (HI) be on the lives of people? We demonstrate that the answer to this question requires the study of two implicit functions, ...

Ref: Mathematical modeling and cellular automata simulation of infectious disease dynamics: Applications to the understanding of herd immunity [J Chem Phys, 2020]

There is a strong argument for attempting near universal population coverage with the annual influenza vaccine leading up to next winter.

... discusses these issues and estimates ideal minimum influenza vaccination coverage based on an estimated influenza Basic Reproduction Number (R0) of 0.9-2.1 so as to obtain herd immunity or approach it. There is a strong argument for attempting near universal population coverage with the annual influenza vaccine leading up to next winter. ...

Ref: Influenza vaccination in the COVID-19 era [Early Hum Dev, 2020]

Herd immunity is only effective when the population is vaccinated before the onset of the disease.

... enough to infect most of the remaining uninfected people before the epidemic spirals down. It follows that public health strategies based on herd immunity are extremely misguided and extremely deadly. Herd immunity is only effective when the population is vaccinated before the onset of the disease. ...

Ref: The COVID-19 pandemic: model-based evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and prognoses [Nonlinear Dyn, 2020-08-10]

We compare these benefits to the associated costs in terms of plausible effects on US GDP.

... Years (QALY) saved (or lost) by a limited reopening with continued social distancing as compared to both a pandemic scenario that ends with "herd immunity" and a return to shelter-in-place. We compare these benefits to the associated costs in terms of plausible effects on US GDP. ...

Ref: Cost Benefit Analysis of Limited Reopening Relative to a Herd Immunity Strategy or Shelter in Place for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States [medRxiv, 2020-06-28]

First, the cumulative per-capita mortality rate from COVID-19 has plateaued at different levels (appendix).

... First, the cumulative per-capita mortality rate from COVID-19 has plateaued at different levels (appendix). The reporting of deaths in different countries with good testing capacity, although not without challenges, is generally considered one of the more reliable statistics on COVID-19 since testing has been ...

Ref: Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? [Lancet, 2020-06-11]

Several COVID-19-vaccines are under way, some of which have recently entered phase III trials.

... for a vaccine to provide effective herd immunity for everyone"s lives to return to normal. Several COVID-19-vaccines are under way, some of which have recently entered phase III trials. Meanwhile, an age-old treatment in daily urologic practice may find a novel role in the ...

Ref: Novel use of an old compound? Urologist-led BCG-vaccine trials in the prevention of COVID-19. [BJU international, 2020-10-09]

Effectiveness of containment measures. Containment measures in China significantly reduced COVID-19 spreading.

... Effectiveness of containment measures. Containment measures in China significantly reduced COVID-19 spreading. The first lockdown resulted in a 61% decrease of the reproduction factor R 0 and the second, stricter wave of measures eventually managed to bring it to close to 0. ...

Ref: Modeling the COVID-19 outbreaks and the effectiveness of the containment measures adopted across countries [BJU international, 2020-04-04]

Herd immunity has been widely bashed as the 'failed strategy' that the UK followed before changing tack and imposing a national lockdown.

... Herd immunity has been widely bashed as the "failed strategy" that the UK followed before changing tack and imposing a national lockdown. The ensuing controversy has all but poisoned this scientific term, which just refers to a state where the number of people immune in a population is so high that a ...

Ref: Lockdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic: What is the endgame? [Scand J Public Health, 2020-09-26]

The proposed strategy can be easily implemented by several research laboratories and might help in better activity plans in other locations to be ready for future outbreaks.

... the design of personalized strategies of reincorporation into academic activities in the future. This will significantly reduce the human and economic burden of future COVID-19 infection waves in our community. The proposed strategy can be easily implemented by several research laboratories and might help in better activity plans in other locations to be ready for future outbreaks. ...

Ref: Cross‐sectional pilot study exploring the feasibility of a rapid SARS‐CoV‐2 immunization test in health and non‐healthcare workers [Allergy, 2020-08-05]

Further COVID-19-spread in these countries is limited and is not expected to rise by more than a factor of 2-3.

... T_{L}/{\rm T_{H}}}}\times c_{exp}^{{\rm T_{L}/{\rm T_{H}-1}}}$). We find that most countries should have already achieved herd-immunity. Further COVID-19-spread in these countries is limited and is not expected to rise by more than a factor of 2-3. We suggest tests/predictions to further verify the model and biologically identify the LVS, and discuss ...

Ref: A preceding low-virulence strain pandemic inducing immunity against COVID-19 [Allergy, 2020-07-14]

A method for measuring uncertainty about P(crit) based on a widely used package, EpiEstim, is derived.

... COVID-19 infection in order to attain "herd" immunity, P(crit), is important for formulating epidemiological policy. A method for measuring uncertainty about P(crit) based on a widely used package, EpiEstim, is derived. The procedure is illustrated using data from twelve countries at two early times during the ...

Ref: On the Uncertainty about Herd Immunity Levels Required to Stop Covid-19 Epidemics [Allergy, 2020-06-01]

Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity.

... are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to ...

Ref: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period [Science, 2020]

This will provide massive success in this current health crisis.

... those who are immune, and to continue the lockdown until R 0 reduces to <1. This will provide massive success in this current health crisis. Collectively, it is likely that with India"s diverse ethnic groups and governmental measures, it will ...

Ref: Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and Mortality Rate in India: The Winning Edge [Front Public Health, 2020-07-21]

Herd immunity has been a hot topic since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic Can it be a possible strategy to combat COVID-19?

... adopting varied response strategy in terms of their public health system to prevent the spread Herd immunity has been a hot topic since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic Can it be a possible strategy to combat COVID-19? To fully interpret the knowledge regarding the term upon the background of COVID-19-related health crisis, ...

Ref: How to Understand “Herd Immunity” in COVID-19 Pandemic [Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology, 2020]

This translates to herd immunity thresholds needed to stop transmission to be between 73% and 84%.

... 4.7-7.3) in the United States and between 3.6 and 6.1 in the eight European countries. This translates to herd immunity thresholds needed to stop transmission to be between 73% and 84%. We further analyze how vaccination schedules depends on R0, the duration of vaccine-induced immunity to ...

Ref: Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination [Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology, 2020-08-04]

While reducing mortality, these measures result in severe economic repercussions, and inhibit the development of herd immunity.

... Background: The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has driven many countries to take radical suppression measures. While reducing mortality, these measures result in severe economic repercussions, and inhibit the development of herd immunity. Until an effective vaccine will be available, we propose an alternative approach, akin to avalanche control ...

Ref: Controlled Avalanche: A Regulated Voluntary Exposure Approach for Addressing Covid19 [Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology, 2020-04-22]

Enhancing herd immunity to control the COVID-19 epidemic is problematic.

... disease [83] [84] [85] . The main question, then, is if humans can become reinfected. Enhancing herd immunity to control the COVID-19 epidemic is problematic. Given that the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 can range between 0.25% and 3.0% ...

Ref: Dynamics of Population Immunity Due to the Herd Effect in the COVID-19 Pandemic [Vaccines (Basel), 2020-05-19]